An Insider's Look at Betting the NCAA Tournament

An Insider's Look at Betting the NCAA Tournament

The NCAA tournament is upon us and soon we will bask in one of the great sporting events of the year. We also look forward to a month of betting opportunities that could put us on track for a solid year.

Here’s a look at a number of ways to increase your success in betting this year’s NCAA tournament.

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March Madness Bracket Challenge

If you are planning on winning anything in a bracket challenge, start with your champion and work backwards. Most winners of bracket challenges are the ones that correctly pick the winner. More points are awarded for the champion than for picking a first- or second-round upset.

As you pick your bracket, keep that in mind. Also consider that since 1985 when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, more No. 1, 2, and 3 seeds make the Final Four than any other seeds.

Before you start picking your Cinderella to go all the way to the Final Four, think about this. Since ‘85, there have only been 14 instances when a team seeded No. 7 or lower advanced to a Final Four.

History also says that at least one No. 1 seed and one No. 2 seed will get beat before the Sweet Sixteen. Your goal is to pick the right ones. But, don’t worry. Picking the right champion is more important.

Futures Bets

You can still bet on the national champion in the futures market. Gonzaga, the overall No. 1 seed, is the overwhelming favorite at +155. More often than not, a No. 1 seed does win the tournament. Fourteen of the past 20 champions have been No. 1 seeds.

The NCAA started naming an overall No. 1 seed 16 years ago, only three times has that team won the national championship. The other No. 1 seeds - Baylor (+550), Illinois (+500), and Michigan (+600) - are solid choices as well.

It’s highly unlikely all four No. 1s will make it to the Final Four. Since the expansion of March Madness, only once (2008) have all four top seeds advanced to the Final Four.

Take a look at our Clippers at Pelicans free pick for last weekend!

Betting Games

There is plenty of value betting the individual games of this year’s tournament as well. With 67 games, there are plenty of opportunities for success. If you are looking for moneyline upsets, look at the 7-10 and 6-11 matchups. There are more upsets in those games than any others in the first round.

Typically, 10th and 11th seeds are either very good mid-major champions or teams from a power conference that have played an extremely tough schedule.

In betting point spreads, remember that teams that excel on defense typically do well come tournament time. Watch for teams like Loyola, St. Bonaventure, Virginia, and Houston especially if they are an underdog.

You can also find value in betting on totals. Again, strong defensive teams typically trend toward the Under. St. Bonaventure, for example, has seen the total go Under in 14 of its 20 games.

On the other end, high-scoring teams like Oklahoma State (19-8-1) and West Virginia (18-9) have trended toward the Over.